Confluence
Several independent things pointing at the same price. One level is a hypothesis; four levels landing together is a place where something usually happens.
Updated September 4, 2026
Independence is what makes it work
Any single level can be coincidence. A Fibonacci line lands somewhere by construction; a moving average passes through every price eventually. Individually, each is weak evidence.
When several arrive at the same price by different routes, the coincidence gets expensive. Orders cluster there because different groups of traders each have their own reason to care about that exact price.
What Sonarcast counts
The ×N badge means N of these landed in the same narrow band:
- A large resting wall in the order book.
- Fibonacci retracement levels and pivot points.
- VWAP and the volume profile POC.
- Moving averages, and equal highs or lows.
- The more of them coincide, the stronger the level — and the more likely price reacts rather than passes through.
Confirmation factors are a different list
Alongside price levels, a setup carries factors for and against: CVD, open interest, funding, the BTC context, multi-timeframe agreement, liquidity. Each adds or subtracts.
The distinction matters. Confluence is about a price — where. Factors are about a situation — whether. A setup can sit on a strong level with the factors against it, and that is a real and useful thing to see.
Where counting stops helping
Levels that are not independent do not add evidence. Three Fibonacci lines from three swings at nearly the same price is one observation drawn three times, not three observations.
And a strong level is not a forecast. Confluence says a reaction is likely at that price; it says nothing about which way price leaves. Plenty of ×4 levels break — the break is simply more informative than an ordinary one.
Common questions
- How many coinciding levels make a level "strong"?
- Two is worth noticing, four is hard to ignore. But independence matters more than count — three variations of the same measurement are still one piece of evidence.
- Does a confluence level mean price will bounce?
- It means a reaction is likely, not which direction it takes. A strong level that breaks tells you something important: the move had enough force to spend all that resting interest.
- What is the difference between confluence and factors?
- Confluence is about a price — how many levels land there. Factors are about the situation — whether flow, positioning and context support the idea. Strong level plus bad factors is a common and informative combination.